Maryland specific discussion of vote share and mathematics behind impact on delegate allocation of its 95 Delegates. This is part of mathematics of delegate allocation notes in the series of Delegate Mathematics stories. The state-wide Maryland Democratic Party is affiliated with national Democratic Party and participates in presidential nominee selection process within its umbrella.
Basic Data: Maryland has 95 delegates available. There are 8 Congressional Districts(CD). So including state-wide at-large and PLEO(Party Leaders and Elected Officials) allocations, there are 10 different delegate allocation units. Number of delegates available in each CDs are as follows: 6 from CD1 ::: 7 from CD2 CD6 ::: 8 from CD3 CD8 ::: 9 from CD5 CD7 ::: 10 from CD4. State-wide allocations are 10 PLEOs and 21 at-large delegates. With such a large number of delegates this has a potential to give a candidate a bigger boost. Combining that with 4 out of 8 districts having odd number of delegates, even a small boost would give a candidate definitive delegate advantage.
Primary Election Information: Primary ballot/vote is scheduled for 26th April 2016. Maryland operates a closed primary. Participation is open to registered Democrats only. Same day registration is not available.
Deadlines: Voter Registration/Party Affiliation changes deadline 05 April 2016. Early voting period runs from 14th April 2016 to 21st April 2016.
If you have missed primary voting deadline then there is still time to register for general election. Uncommitted is by default an option available.
State board of election here http://www.elections.state.md.us/ has fairly decent level of information. Probably the FAQ section http://www.elections.state.md.us/voting/election_day_questions.html is clearer than many other places.
2014 elections rumour quashing was fairly fun to read. Looking forward to 2016 rumours http://www.elections.state.md.us/press_room/rumor_control.html
Democratic Party Website is fairly comprehensive for state and local matters https://mddems.org/
Double Barrel Primary: Presidential Primary coincides with some state/local primary elections including non-partisan Judges. There might be additional local government elections in some places. On top of that the primary is also coincides with US House of Representatives and US Senate primaries. Turn out should be spectacularly high considering the many high Democratic from hopes are running. Competitive primary for US Senate seat from Maryland (currently held by Barbara Mikulski). Competitive primary for two US House seats being vacated by the two Representatives who are now competing for US Senate seat. Added to that competitive primary for lonely US House seat currently held by Republican. Turnout should be spectacular. On top of it a few die hard Martin O’Malley supporters who will be voting for O’Malley. {He is still on Ballot. I am personally expecting O’Malley to grab (8% to 10% votes here}.
Absentee/Mail ballots: Absentee/vote by mail is available. Early voting period runs from 14th April 2016 to 21st April 2016
Voter ID Laws: Voter ID laws are fairly lenient. First time voters might be requested to show an ID. Acceptable forms of ID are: A copy of a current and valid photo ID (i.e., Maryland driver's license, MVA ID card, student, employee, or military ID card, U.S. passport, or any other State or federal government-issued ID card); or A copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck or other government document that shows your name and address. Current means that the document is dated within 3 months of the election.
Provisional ballot can still be cast.
Congressional District Based Delegate Allocation Triggers: (See table below). A total of 64 delegates are allocated on district basis. Due to proportional representation formula being used to allocate delegates from various districts, the number of delegates each candidate wins changes at certain specific percentage levels. Crossing/going past the vote percentages at those levels triggers a change in number of delegates awarded. The triggers for congressional districts based allocations are listed below. Districts with same number of available delegates are grouped.
| 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| 25 | 21.5 | 18.8 | 16.7 | 15 |
| 41.7 | 35.8 | 31.3 | 27.8 | 25 |
| 58.4 | 50 | 43.8 | 38.9 | 35 |
| 75 | 64.3 | 56.3 | 50 | 45 |
| 85 | 78.6 | 68.8 | 61.2 | 55 |
| 85 | 81.3 | 72.3 | 65 | |
| 85 | 83.4 | 75 |
For 6 Delegates at CD1: Within the whole range of 41.7 — 58.3 the delegate split will be straight 3-3. Interesting points are at 41.7%. and 58.3%, if candidates are hovering around either of these mark, then some extra effort would break the district 4-2 split. For an advantage a candidate has all the incentive to break it 4-2split with 58.3% votes. Otherwise we are looking at a straight 3-3 split. Big advantages can only be made at 58.3% or higher levels.
For 7 Delegates at CD2, CD6 : Within the range of 35.7% — 50% the 3 delegates each will be allocated. The fight for the 7th delegate is again precariously balanced at 50% marker to make the overall break 4-3 split. To achieve a 5-2 split votes need to be at 64.3% or higher.
For 8 Delegates at CD3 CD8: First two delegates are cheap at 15% and 18.8%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. Aim here would be to attempt for 56.3% or better vote share and grab the 2 delegate advantage of 5-3 split.
For 9 Delegates at CD7: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 16.7%, third at 27.8% and fourth at 38.9%. Each delegate needs roughly 11% shift in support. The tipping point is again at 50% for the advantageous break with 5-4 split. Additional delegates acquired at 61.2% and 72.3%. For a campaign a smaller movement in these districts could still trigger an extra delegate.
For 10 Delegates at CD4: First two delegates achieved cheaply at 15%. Subsequently every extra 10% gives an additional delegates. Any vote share between 45% and just under 55% will result in a 5-5 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 55% results in two delegate advantage 6-4. The next trigger at 65% for 7-3 split. These both numbers seem within the realms of possibilities
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 21 At-Large delegates and 10 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, the odd number of at-large allocations would reward state-wide winner with overall at least one delegate advantages. The large numbers of delegates available in these categories also mean that a smaller movement in support/vote level would result in delegate advantages.
The table below shows some of the interesting range (35% — 85%) of vote shares and trigger points in the range. For each specific triggers point, corresponding number of both PLEO and at-large delegates are shown.
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
For 10 Pledged PLEOs: At the viability 15% vote share 2 Delegates are acquired. Each subsequent delegate from then on at 10% increments. Even split of (5-5) delegates between 45% and 55%. The trigger at 55% awarding a delegate advantage split of (6-4).
For 21 Delegates State-wide (at-large): Because of a high number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly small. Results should reflect the similar percentages. Roughly 4.8% votes translates to 1 delegate. Crossing 15% threshold gives a starting point of 3 delegates. fourth delegate is cheap at 16.7%. Subsequently every 4.8% gives an extra delegate. Crossing 50% gives an advantageous split of (11-10) delegates.
Taking both categories into account, individual delegate acquiring triggers are plentiful. Some of the trigger points are very close to each other. So even a small difference could mean a difference between a delegate. However due to small number of districts the triggers from districts do not substantially change delegate allocations much over all.
Some Casual Scenarios: With so much interest in margins and delegate acquiring numbers, I thought I would add a few numbers and save interested people the hassle of having to do napkin mathematics on the fly. (Like that California one California-Delegate-Mathematics-475-Dels)
All calculations in the next bit, based on uniform distribution of votes (ie. same proportion of votes in all districts). Small (ish??) change at 50% and 55% and 56.3%, 61.2%, 64.3%, 65% otherwise mostly just mediocre sporadic delegate change.
Lets See Some Interesting Numbers: Scraping past 50%: districts (3+4+4+4+4+5+5+5), statewide (5+11). Total 50 vs 45
Just under 56.3%: districts (3+4+4+4+4+5+5+6), statewide (6+12). Total 53 vs 42
Scraping past 56.3%: districts (3+4+4+5+5+5+5+6), statewide (6+12). Total 55 vs 40
Scraping past 61.2%: districts (4+4+4+5+5+6+6+6), statewide (6+13). Total 59 vs 36
Scraping past 64.3%: districts (4+5+5+5+5+6+6+6), statewide (6+14). Total 62 vs 33
Scraping past 65%: districts (4+5+5+5+5+6+6+7), statewide (7+14). Total 64 vs 31
As a side note: Pockets of high vote shares in a district while rewarding (if triggers crossed) delegates, also tend to cause loss of delegates (if falling below triggers) in other districts (This effect is a bit more visible in districts which have lower number of delegates).
Next (Rest of) bit is my personal opinion:
With only 10 delegate allocation units, there are not many big impact triggers. The triggers for individual districts are different and all over the map. The one at 50% is shared by only three. So that gives some advantage. Apart from that pretty much sporadic delegate acquisition. The turnout however should be a lot higher than normal. Some very competitive Democratic Party primaries happening. Many of these are effectively act as an effective election due to Democratic Party dominance in the state. Closed primary, so a bit more favourable towards Hillary Clinton. I still expect Martin O’Malley to grab somewhere between 8% and 10% of votes even if not running any more. Congressional districts map is all over the place with twists and curls and caps and hats and appendices making appearance.
Now for district by district:
CD1: Carolina, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne's, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico and Worcester Counties and bits and pieces of Baltimore, Carroll and Harford Counties. Fairly safe for Republican. Demographics more favourable towards Bernie Sanders. Delegates probably splitting (3-3) which needs just holding Clinton under 58.4%.
CD2: Bits of everywhere, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford and Howard Counties and some bits of the city of Baltimore. Large portion of Democratic Party electorate here is African American. {Not sure why there seem to be substantially more women in this district than men. Even more so than rest of the state which has more women to start with. Perhaps someone knowledgeable about local stuff could explain}. Expecting it to break in favour of Hillary Clinton (4-3) and pushing close to 64.3% for (5-2) split.
CD3:Again bits of everywhere, Anne Arundel, Montgomery, Howard and Baltimore Counties. Reasonable chunk of electorate again African American. Expecting this to break in Clinton favour (5-3) at 56.3%
CD4:Bits and pieces of Anne Arundel County and Prince George's County. Home district of US House Rep Donna Edwards, currently contesting primary for US Senate. Former Lt Governor Anthony Brown trying to revive a career as US House Representative here. Majority African American electorate in the district. Democratic Electorate even more so. Expecting Clinton to comfortable achieve (7-3) in favour at 65%.
CD5: Made up of Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's Counties, and again bits and pieces form Anne Arundel and Prince George's Counties. Home district of one of the establishment. The current US House Rep Steny Hoyer, ranking just behind Nancy Pelosi and expected to take over as Party House Leader (Minority) if and when Pelosi quits. Substantial chunk of Democratic Party electorate again African American. Expecting Clinton to comfortably achieve (6-3) at 61.2%
CD6: Comprised of Allegany, Garrett and Washington Counties, and bits and pieces from Frederick and Montgomery Counties. This is a competitive district for US House seat. Democrats (John Delaney) flipped it in 2012 but struggling hard to hold. 2014 was very close. Expecting Clinton to easily cover it (4-3) with 50%.
CD7: Bits and pieces from Howard and Baltimore Counties and some more bits from city of Baltimore. Electorate is African American majority here. So Democratic Party electorate would be even more so. This is home of Clinton defender at Benghazi Hearings, Representative Elijah Cummings. Expecting Clinton to comfortably take (6-3) at 61.2% if not better.
CD8: Made up of bits of Carroll, Frederick and Montgomery Counties. Nothing stands out as such in demographics maybe just a bit more Asian population. Open primary for US House seat. Current Rep Chris Van Hollen competing in primary for US Senate seat. Turnout should be fairly high. Expecting Clinton to comfortable split (5-3) with 56.3%
In statewide allocation categories, there are not many big number changes. Expecting Clinton to comfortably exceed 60% and push towards 65% achieving PLEO (10-6), at-large (14-7), making totals (Clinton 65 — Sanders 30).
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.
Meanwhile today I invite you to peek at your local state party: http://asdc.democrats.org/state-parties/
For the quartermasters of revolutions, this is the time to prepare for contesting 2017/2018 state and federal elections.