It's safe to say at this point that Maryland's Democratic primary for Senate has not gone the way we had expected—or the way Chris Van Hollen had wished it would. A new survey from OpinionWorks for the Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore finds Rep. Donna Edwards beating Van Hollen, a fellow member of the House, by 34 to 28 margin; when a host of minor candidates are excluded, Edwards' advantage balloons out to 45-35. Back in November, it was Van Hollen who had the lead, 45-31.
Since then, we've seen a trio of other polls showing the candidates separated by just 1 or 2 points, but this the first time in a long time Edwards has sported a material lead. Months ago, it looked like Van Hollen was going to swamp Edwards: Not only did his huge fundraising edge allow him to get up on TV early to introduce himself to voters in other parts of the state, but much of the state's Democratic establishment also endorsed him. (Indeed, he just secured the backing of Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, who represents an area the DC-based Van Hollen's tried hard to make inroads into.)
However, Edwards' biggest ally, EMILY's List, seemed to keep her in the game with large ad expenditures of their own. Indeed, EMILY recently re-upped on Edwards' behalf and says it's spent over $2 million to date. It may also be that despite Van Hollen's broad support from black leaders, there's still a hunger to see a black woman elected to the Senate from Maryland. Indeed, in the OpinionWorks poll, black voters (who make up 39 percent of the poll's sample) back Edwards by a huge 67-16 margin.
But as we've noted before, the primary is not until April 26, meaning Van Hollen still has six weeks to dump his considerable war chest on the airwaves. And even if EMILY were to match him dollar for dollar, Van Hollen's money would go farther, since campaigns are entitled to cheaper ad rates than third-party groups. We also have to note that this is just one poll; given that multiple surveys have found a much tighter race recently, it's possible OpinionWorks is simply off. Polling primaries, after all, is not easy. But if it's not, then April's results could yield quite the surprise.