More big news out of Maryland today:
Former Maryland governor and Democratic presidential candidate Martin O'Malley weighed into the state's competitive Senate race on Monday with an endorsement for Rep. Chris Van Hollen.
Calling him a "reliable progressive partner" -- one of four times he used the word "progressive" in his email to supporters -- O'Malley says Van Hollen has been a leader in the state on issues such as the environment, gun control and education.
"In my time serving on the Baltimore City Council, as mayor of Baltimore, and as governor, Chris was a reliable, progressive partner in the General Assembly and in Congress," O'Malley wrote. "Chris knows what’s needed to move Maryland forward, and he knows how to get things done."
The endorsement is the second O'Malley has made in a Senate primary this cycle. He backed Braddock Mayor John Fetterman over former congressman Joe Sestak and Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania's competitive Democratic primary.
O'Malley, who ran a spirited campaign for president but who dropped out after a lackluster finish in the Iowa caucus, has notably not endorsed a candidate for the presidential nomination despite a long relationship with front runner Hillary Clinton that predated his campaign.
It's not clear how much impact O'Malley's nod will have. On the one hand, many state Democrats aligned with O'Malley we're already supporting Van Hollen. And O'Malley did not garner much support for his presidential bid even in his home state.
On the other hand, O'Malley is still one of the state's best-known names in Democratic politics, he was widely credited with running an energetic, issues-based presidential campaign, and he is still popular in many quarters of Baltimore and its suburbs -- exactly the geography that has become the battleground in the Senate race.
We’ll see tomorrow if O’Malley’s endorsement will make a difference but it could be African American voters who could decide to tomorrow’s nominee:
"Race does matter," Edwards said during one debate. "It's time that we had the ability to speak for ourselves."
In Maryland especially, it's a message Edwards hopes resonates. Just a year ago, Baltimore was rocked by the death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray, who died from injuries sustained while in police custody. Riots enveloped the city for days. Charges were filed against several of the officers involved; one trial resulted in a mistrial when the jury couldn't reach a verdict, and other trials will resume next month.
More than 40 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Maryland is expected to be African-American. Turnout is likely to be especially high in the city of Baltimore, where there's a competitive mayoral primary featuring two black women as the front-runners.
"It's not that the black community doesn't like Chris Van Hollen. The issue is that there's little ideological daylight between the two," said Mileah Kromer, a professor of political science and a pollster at Goucher College in Baltimore. "Now you have an opportunity to send someone who actually looks like you to the Senate, and that's not lost on a lot of black women in Baltimore City."
The presidential nominating contest is also on the ballot, and that is also expected to boost turnout. And one of the most reliable voting blocs for Hillary Clinton (whom both Van Hollen and Edwards support) has been black women. Earlier polls have shown a close race for Senate, but a Monmouth University survey last week gave Van Hollen a double-digit advantage.
"The hardcore voters who come out every single election cycle are older, African-American women. Those are people right now who are breaking for Edwards," Kromer said. "She has certainly benefited from the intersection of race and gender in this election."
But if Edwards loses tomorrow, Super PACs can be blamed for her loss:
Edwards’ message centers on her background as a single mother and the historical significance of becoming only the second African-American woman to ever serve in the Senate. Benjamin Gerdes, a spokesman for her campaign, said Marylanders are excited about a candidate who understands their day-to-day struggles.
“We are making sure everyone we contact knows the choice they face, between a business-as-usual Washington insider looking for a promotion, or a bold change-maker who will fight every day for everyday Marylanders, just like Barbara Mikulski,” Gerdes said. “The power is in the people’s hands, and we're confident that Maryland Democrats will choose Donna to represent them in the United States Senate.”
Those stakes have made the primary between two House colleagues extremely hard fought and often negative. The candidates haven’t shied away from attacking each other, either on style or substance. The most recent and telling example was an ad from a super PAC supporting Edwards that cited Van Hollen’s role in negotiating campaign finance legislation in 2010; more to the point, it accused him of cutting a “backroom deal” beneficial to the National Rifle Association.
The super PAC ad used an image of President Obama speaking about the shooting in Newtown, Conn., that killed 20 schoolchildren, and was swiftly denounced by the White House, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (a Maryland Democrat), and others.
Edwards’ campaign did not release the ad and cannot legally coordinate with the group that did, but her team released a similar criticism of Van Hollen; though it did not use the president’s image, the backlash was still largely the same. Many Democrats saw the ad as a crucial mistake that came at a particularly unfortunate time.
“She had all the momentum and a lot of things were breaking her way and that might have been a moment where she went too far and it hurt her,” said Steve Kearney, a past aide to former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.
Though much of the backlash centered on the use of Obama’s image by the PAC without the White House’s approval, some critics seized upon the underlying assertion that Van Hollen was weak on gun control. Hoyer pointed out that he, Pelosi and many other Democrats voted for the campaign finance agreement, and took issue with Edwards’ characterization of it. Other Maryland Democrats did as well.
“The insinuation that Chris Van Hollen was weak on gun control was kind of absurd to everyone that new Van Hollen. It was a ludicrous attack, and to use the president in there was a mistake,” said John Willis, the former Maryland secretary of state. “I think that gave the Van Hollen campaign an opening with some folks.”
Indeed, his camp then used Obama’s name and the White House in an attack against Edwards. The ad ends with this question: “Donna Edwards -- will she say anything to win an election?”
Prior to the misfired ad, Edwards seemed to control her destiny, with a poll at the end of March showing her with a four-point lead. Soon afterward, several sources said the momentum shifted toward Van Hollen. The caveat, however, is that much can change in the final days of a heated campaign, and most warned that there are too many variables to predict which way the race will go.
We shall see. If you’re voting in Maryland tomorrow, click here to find your polling place.