Well, if you’re backing Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s (D. MD) U.S. Senate campaign, I have some very good news for you courtesy of Monmouth University’s latest poll:
Maryland Democrats will also hold a U.S. Senate primary for the seat being vacated by long-time Democratic incumbent Barbara Mikulski. Congressman Chris Van Hollen currently holds a 52% to 36% lead in that contest over Congresswoman Donna Edwards. Eleven percent of voters are undecided.
The Monmouth University Poll found a sharp racial divide in voter support. Van Hollen has an overwhelming lead among white voters (73% to 16%), while Edwards has an almost equally large advantage among black voters (62% to 26%). Men give Van Hollen a large lead over Edwards (60% to 26%), while women prefer him by a much more narrow margin (47% to 43%).
Regionally, Van Hollen polls very strongly in the part of the state that runs from the northwest D.C. suburbs to the western border, including his current House district – earning 72% support there to just 19% for Edwards. Edwards does best in the suburban area that runs south and east of Baltimore and DC and includes her district – taking 48% of voter support there to 40% for Van Hollen. Van Hollen has a slight edge – 46% to 41% – in the remaining part of the state that includes Baltimore and the Eastern Shore.
“Van Hollen was pegged as the early favorite in this race, but he has faced a tough challenge from Edwards. His length of service in the House and reputation as a dealmaker seems to have helped him build a strong lead,” said Murray.
In many ways, this race has come down to a contest between ideology and pragmatism. While Edwards has tried to position herself as the progressive champion, similar numbers of Democratic primary voters feel that both candidates would stay true to core progressive values (73% for Van Hollen and 71% for Edwards). The frontrunner has a slight advantage, though, when it comes to looking for ways to form deals in order to get things done – 70% say this describes Van Hollen while 59% say the same about Edwards. There is little difference in how voters view the two candidates’ intention to work hard on behalf of Maryland families (73% for Van Hollen and 69% for Edwards).
One contentious incident in the race occurred recently when a PAC backing Edwards ran an ad on gun policy that seemed to imply that Pres. Obama supports Edwards. The ad was promptly pulled after the White House protested and it does not seem to have had an impact on the race. Even though Obama has not made an endorsement, 26% of voters think the president prefers Van Hollen and 13% think he prefers Edwards, while 40% say he probably has no preference in this nomination contest. If Obama decided to make a last minute endorsement, 26% say they would be more likely to back that candidate, but most (70%) say it would have no impact on their vote.
Overall, 60% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Van Hollen and just 4% hold an unfavorable view of him, with 36% having no opinion. Half (50%) have a favorable opinion of Edwards and just 14% hold an unfavorable view of her, with 37% having no opinion.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from April 18 to 20, 2016 with 300 Maryland voters likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. This sample has a margin of error of +5.7 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
That’s a bigger lead than what PPP has which still shows a big number of undecideds.
Van Hollen also picked up the endorsement from the Baltimore Sun:
In the hard-fought Democratic primary, the choice is clear: Rep. Chris Van Hollen Jr. is by far the most qualified candidate to carry on the Mikulski tradition. The seven-term congressman from Montgomery County has demonstrated the same kind of leadership skills and devotion to progressive causes whether in the halls of the state Senate in Annapolis or in Congress. His rise from Rep. Connie Morella's successor in 2003 to then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's assistant three years later marked his arrival as someone who could get things done within the chamber.
Mr. Van Hollen's record has not simply been about casting votes when called to the floor but about shepherding legislation, whether it involved reducing the interest rates on student loans or providing health insurance to millions of Americans who couldn't previously afford it. Even as Capitol Hill grew increasingly partisan, Mr. Van Hollen demonstrated a willingness to reach across the aisle — helping negotiate bipartisan budget agreements from his post as a senior member of the House Budget Committee, for instance. His extensive knowledge of the federal budget often made him the go-to man when his party needed someone to counter the misguided fiscal assertions of Rep. Paul Ryan and others in the GOP.
Rep. Donna F. Edwards of Prince George's County, his main opponent in the primary field, represents a remarkable success story herself. A single mother and community activist noted for her work against domestic violence, Ms. Edwards became the first African-American woman to represent Maryland in the U.S. House of Representatives when she was first elected in 2008. She would be only the second African-American woman to serve in the Senate (Carol Moseley Braun having been the first nearly a quarter-century ago) and the first African American, man or woman, to win statewide office in Maryland on his or her own.
Bringing greater diversity to the Senate is a commendable goal (there are currently only 20 women and two African Americans, both men, in the chamber), and the body could use Ms. Edwards' perspective, not just as a minority but as a single parent who has struggled economically in her life. She is a persuasive spokeswoman for progressive values, and against most any other opponent, we would be happy to endorse her, but Mr. Van Hollen's record of accomplishment is simply without peer.
We have also been troubled by the dishonesty of some of Ms. Edwards' campaign ads — most recently an assertion that Mr. Van Hollen is somehow soft on gun control and thus on crime. The evidence? His sponsorship of a 2010 campaign finance bill known as the DISCLOSE Act that expanded disclosure requirements for large donors but not for theNational Rifle Association (or trade unions for that matter). It was a bill supported by this newspaper despite its exemptions and by 217 of 253 Democrats voting in the House only to fail in the U.S. Senate because it lacked a filibuster-proof majority due to GOP opposition.
It looks like Edwards is trying to get more members of the Congressional Black Caucus to endorse her before next week’s primary:
POLITICO has learned that Edwards met privately last week with several CBC members to voice her frustration that so few African-American lawmakers had offered her their support, according to five sources familiar with the meetings. Only four of the 46 CBC members — Reps. Gwen Moore of Wisconsin, Lacy Clay of Missouri, Robin Kelly of Illinois and Hank Johnson of Georgia — are backing Edwards over Van Hollen, an unusually small number for a group known for standing by fellow African-American lawmakers. Meanwhile, Van Hollen has been making hay over his growing number of endorsements from black political leaders in Maryland, including some in Edwards’ district, though he has yet to be endorsed by a CBC member.
Edwards, who won her House seat by defeating Al Wynn, a popular member of the CBC, in a Democratic primary in 2008, has had a strained relationship with many black lawmakers from the start. But with she and Van Hollen running nearly neck-and-neck in a primary that many expected Van Hollen to win easily, Edwards has been reaching out over the past two weeks to members of the CBC to ask why they’re not backing her bid to be only the second black woman elected to the U.S. Senate. She’s also pressed her case with lawmakers at the Democratic Club restaurant, where members often eat.
Sources close to the CBC and lawmakers familiar with the conversations said some of Edwards’ CBC colleagues responded to her in frank terms. Members of the CBC have long considered her abrasive and said she’s not an easy colleague to work with.
Whoever wins next week is going to easily hold onto this seat. With conflicting polling, who knows how it will go on Tuesday, April 26th. If you would like to donate and get involved with either Democrat’s campaign, you can click below: