There’s been a lot of focus on the US Senate races in Montana, Ohio, and the swing states, but there’s a race here in deep blue Maryland that you might not have been following as closely. When popular Republican former governor Larry Hogan first announced his unexpected candidacy, I was quite concerned. But since Kamala Harris became our nominee, I’ve been feeling more confident that most Democrats will come home to the party, and that Harris’ coattails will bring Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County Executive, across the finish line.
Since the May 14th primary, there have been three polls. One by Public Policy Polling in mid-June had Alsobrooks leading Hogan by 11 points at 45-34. She also had a 10-point higher net favorability—hers was 43 favorable/16 unfavorable for +27: his was 50 favorable/33 unfavorable for +17. Obviously those numbers showed a high percentage of voters with no opinion of her either way. In that poll, Biden led Trump by 26 points at 56-30. This was great news.
In the next poll conducted August 14-20 by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for AARP, the race was even at 46-46, with Hogan drawing 26% of Democrats. Interestingly, it also had Hogan at +10 with voters 18-34 and +13 with voters 50-64, but Alsobrooks had a +13 advantage with the 35-49s and +8 with the 65+ group. Alsobrooks was still +25 (41/16) in net favorability, but Hogan significantly improved to +31 (59-28). Overall, women preferred Alsobrooks 50-42, and men preferred Hogan 51-41. In this poll, Kamala Harris led Trump by 32 points at 64-32! So that’s a sizeable number of ticket-splitters. This poll seems to be weighted towards seniors.
The most recent poll is by Gonzales Research and Media Services which is Maryland-based: it was conducted August 24-30 after the Convention. In it, Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 5 points, 46-41 with 11% undecided. Her favorability is 40/7, but 34% still do not recognize her name! Her share of the women’s vote improves slightly to 51-41. Hogan’s favorability is still good at 50/19, and he has 98% name recognition. He captures 21% of Democrats and leads 41-31 among Independents. This is not inconsiderable. However, the pollster says that Hogan will need to get about 30% of Democrats and 55% of Independents if he is to win. This poll did not include the presidential race.
I assume we’ll see more, but I wanted to summarize for Kossacks where the polling has been so far, since it’s been minimal. And I really don’t know what three polls that vary widely can tell us. I realize that the science of polling is broken, but there they are.
Personally, I have seen very little advertising so far for either candidate because I don’t watch much television. I have gotten no mailings after the primary, and what I am fed online seems mostly to be fundraising appeals for Alsobrooks, and a few short videos where she emphasizes reproductive rights and the need for a Democratic Senate. I have heard that Hogan has had a more dominant presence on TV: maybe others can confirm that. In my corner of Baltimore, I’ve seen maybe twenty yard signs for Alsobrooks, and only one for Hogan. She did give a good speech at the convention.
I saw this scary graphic on the old Morning Digest back on July 26th: I hope there’s been an improvement since then.
Maryland’s population is about 29% Black and Alsobrooks only gets 78% of them in that last poll: I’ve got to think that Kamala Harris will be a huge motivating factor for them, as would be the thought of sending a Black woman to the US Senate. [Aside: our little part of the country here has the opportunity to send two Black women to the Senate, with Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delaware.] We also have a constitutional amendment on the ballot to enshrine the right to abortion (though Roe is codified here), which you’d think would propel her share of the women’s vote above the current 51%.
Mitch McConnell talked Hogan into this run, so I also hope a lot of Democrats will see that—and the dangerous possibility of a Republican Senate—and vote accordingly. Not to mention that Hogan was not a friend of Baltimore, and practically everything good done here during his tenure was by the General Assembly’s overriding of his many vetoes. There’s a debate scheduled for October 10th.
Right now, this race appears closer than Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and about the same as Ohio, but I’m seeing Maryland characterized as "Likely D" while those others are “Lean D” or “Toss Up.” I hope that a large number of those 11% undecided will come home to the Democrat by election day, but it’s not in the bag. Don’t forget us here.
FYI. We also seem to have a close race in one of our House districts. This is MD-06, the seat currently held by David Trone (who lost to Alsobrooks in the Senate primary). The district includes all of conservative western Maryland, but encompasses enough of Montgomery County and the DC suburbs to make it a slight D+2 district. The latest poll (Gonzales again, from August 24-30) has Republican Neil Parrot ahead of Democrat April McClain-Delaney by 2 points 41-39. Trone won with 54.7% in this newly-configured district in 2022.
By the way, Maryland has the opportunity to send three Democratic women to Congress this year, breaking up the all-boys club of ten men that we have now.