Voters in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia pick their nominees Tuesday in a set of high-profile primaries for state and federal offices where it takes just a simple plurality to win.
That's not all that's in store, though. North Carolina will host runoffs in contests where no one earned at least 30% of the vote in the first round of the primary on March 5—though only in races where the runner-up officially requested a second round. Finally, voters in Anchorage are taking part in a competitive general election to determine the next leader of Alaska's largest city.
Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia. You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close at 7:30 PM ET. Join us for our complete coverage!
North Carolina
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
• NC-LG (R) (50-49 Trump): The main contest on a mostly quiet night in North Carolina is the race to succeed far-right Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is the Republican nominee for governor. (Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately.)
Hal Weatherman, who has worked as a top staffer for several extremist politicians, led Forsyth County District Attorney Jim O'Neill 20-16 in the first round on March 5. Robinson went on to endorse Weatherman for the second round. The winner will go up against state Sen. Rachel Hunt, who won the Democratic nomination two months ago.
The GOP primary for the 13th Congressional District will also be on the ballot, but the race ended in early May when wealthy attorney Kelly Daughtry ended her campaign and endorsed former federal prosecutor Brad Knott. Another congressional district that had been slated to host a runoff, the 6th, won't have one because former Rep. Mark Walker dropped out in March when there was still time to call off a second round.
West Virginia
Polls close at 7:30 PM ET.
• WV-Sen (R) (69-30 Trump): Republicans were well-positioned to flip West Virginia's Senate seat even before Democrat Joe Manchin announced his retirement in November, and there was never much suspense about who the GOP's nominee will be: Gov. Jim Justice, who is termed out of his current post, has the support of Donald Trump and the GOP establishment in a seven-way primary.
Rep. Alex Mooney hoped to position himself as a hardline alternative to Justice, who was elected governor as a Democrat in 2016 and switched parties the next year, but the one-time Maryland legislator has failed to reverse his massive deficit in the polls. The typically free-spending Club for Growth all but gave up on Mooney well before Election Day, telling Politico that Trump's endorsement of Justice left the congressman without "a viable path forward."
• WV-Gov (R) (69-30 Trump): Republicans have an ugly and expensive six-person race to replace Jim Justice as governor that's been defined by escalating transphobic campaign ads from the three main candidates. That trio consists of Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, former Del. Moore Capito, and wealthy car dealership owner Chris Miller.
Morrisey, despite his failure to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in 2018, has been the frontrunner from the start. The Club for Growth and an affiliated organization have spent $10 million on ads praising the attorney general or attacking his rivals, which is far more than any other campaign or group has deployed.
The other main candidates, though, have prominent connections. Capito is the son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito and the grandson of the late Gov. Arch Moore, and he earned Justice's endorsement a month ahead of the primary. Miller, whose mother is Rep. Carol Miller, has used his wealth to finance ads touting himself as an outsider.
Secretary of State Mac Warner is also in the hunt, but he's struggled to bring in money and has aired few ads. Morrisey's backers started running ads targeting Warner in the final days, though, a sign that they believe he could cost their candidate votes. Two little-known Republicans also are on the ballot.
Almost every poll has shown Morrisey in the lead, though surveys disagree about both the size of his advantage and whether either Capito or Miller is his main opponent. A late April survey for a pro-Capito group showed the former legislator beating Morrisey 31-23, but no one has released corroborating data.
• WV-01 (R): Rep. Carol Miller faces an intra-party challenge from former Del. Derrick Evans, who served 90 days in prison for his participation in the Jan. 6 riot, in a constituency based in the southern half of the state.
Miller, who voted against recognizing Joe Biden's victory hours after the attack on the Capitol, doesn't appear to have done anything obvious that might alienate hardliners, but she's still taking Evans seriously. The congresswoman began airing ads late in the contest reminding viewers that Evans ran for the legislature as a Democrat in 2016.
• WV-02 (R): Five Republicans are campaigning to replace Senate candidate Alex Mooney in the district located in the northern half of West Virginia, but there's been one obvious frontrunner from the beginning.
Treasurer Riley Moore, who is the nephew of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, started running in November of 2022 and enjoys the support of both Mooney and Speaker Mike Johnson. Moore has also benefited from over $1.1 million in outside spending, with most of that coming from a crypto-aligned group called Defend American Jobs.
Moore's main opponent appears to be retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Chris Walker, who would be the state's first Black member of Congress. Walker has raised a credible sum of money despite entering the race just four months before the primary, but he's gotten no notable outside support in this uphill battle.
Maryland
Polls close at 8 PM ET.
• MD-Sen (D) (65-32 Biden): Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone are the main candidates in a closely watched 10-person primary to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin, a fellow Democrat who has not taken sides in the contest. The winner will likely take on former Gov. Larry Hogan, who should have no trouble winning the Republican primary.
Alsobrooks would be both Maryland's first Black senator and the first woman to represent the state in either chamber of Congress in eight years. She's benefited from high-profile support from Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, and most of Trone's colleagues in the state's House delegation, as well as an endorsement from the Washington Post.
But Trone, who is a co-founder of the liquor retailer Total Wine, is using his personal resources in a bid to overcome Alsobrooks's extensive establishment support. The congressman has poured over $60 million of his own money into his campaign, which is more than any candidate for Senate has ever self-funded for a primary.
Trone began running TV ads a full year before the primary, and according to AdImpact, he's outspent Alsobrook on commercials by a lopsided $46 million to $4 million spread as of Friday. Alsobrook's allies at EMILYs List have deployed over $2 million to help her overcome this gap, though there's been no other major outside spending on her behalf. Trone, who is white, has used many of his ads to tout his support from Black figures like state Attorney General Anthony Brown.
During the final weeks, the congressman has argued that he'd be a stronger opponent for Hogan and that Alsobrooks has done a poor job in elected office, though some of his messages attracted the wrong type of attention. His team edited a commercial to remove a line arguing that the Senate "is not a place for training wheels," a phrase Alsobrooks' allies charged was racist and sexist. EMILYs, meanwhile, has highlighted Trone's past donations to Republicans in its ads.
Almost every survey has shown Trone ahead, with an independent poll from early April placing his advantage at 48-29. However, there has been little data from the final weeks of the race.
• MD-02 (D) (59-39 Biden): Retiring Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger and much of the state's Democratic establishment are supporting Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski in the six-person primary for this suburban Baltimore seat. The only other notable contender is Del. Harry Bhandari, but he faces a wide financial and institutional disadvantage against Olszewski.
• MD-03 (D) (62-36 Biden): There are 22 names on the Democratic primary ballot to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes, but most of the attention has centered on two of them: retired Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who helped defend Congress during the Jan. 6 riot, and state Sen. Sarah Elfreth.
Dunn's national fame helped him raise over $4.5 million from his campaign launch in January through April 24, a truly massive sum for a House candidate in such a short amount of time. But while that's about three times as much as Elfreth brought in, she's benefited from another $4.2 million in outside spending from the hawkish pro-Israel group AIPAC.
Dunn has responded by airing ads blasting Elfreth for the help she's received from the organization, which he characterized as a "right-wing SuperPAC funded by Trump donors." Elfreth, who has Sen. Ben Cardin's support, has emphasized her roots in the district, which includes the state capital of Annapolis and several of Baltimore's suburbs—a not-too-subtle contrast to Dunn, who does not live in the 3rd District. (Members of Congress do not need to live in the district they represent.)
Dunn and Elfreth have overshadowed the rest of the field, but it's possible someone else could pull off an upset in this packed race. The roster includes state Sen. Clarence Lam, labor attorney John Morse, and three members of the state House of Delegates: Mark Chang, Terri Hill, and Mike Rogers.
• MD-06 (D & R) (54-44 Biden): Democratic Rep. David Trone's decision to run for the Senate has set off a pair of busy primaries to replace him in a constituency that contains the western part of the state and a slice of the Washington, D.C. suburbs.
There are 16 names on the Democratic ballot (though some of those candidates have dropped out), though former U.S. Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney is the frontrunner. Delaney is the wife of former Rep. John Delaney, who represented the previous version of the 6th District for three terms before leaving office in 2019 for an ill-fated bid for president, and she's brought in considerably more money than her opponents thanks in part to self-funding.
Delaney's main intra-party opponent looks to be Del. Joe Vogel, a 27-year-old who identifies as Jewish, Latino, and gay. Thanks in part to the unique profile he'd have in Congress, he's attracted national attention. He's also benefited from about $400,000 in support from Equality PAC, which is affiliated with the Congressional LGBTQ Equality Caucus, while there's been no comparable outside spending for anyone else.
Vogel has aired ads attacking Delaney for her past donations to and friendships with hard-right Republicans, but both sides disagree on the state of the race. A late April survey for Equality PAC found the two deadlocked 24-24, but a Delaney internal conducted a week from Election Day placed her ahead 37-24.
What both polls do agree on is that the rest of the field is mired in the single digits. This roster includes Del. Lesley Lopez, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, and Montgomery County Councilmember Laurie-Anne Sayles.
The two most familiar names on the GOP side are former Dels. Dan Cox and Neil Parrott, who both lost high-profile elections in 2022. Cox, an election conspiracy theorist, was the party's disastrous nominee for governor, while Parrott lost to Trone by a 55-45 margin. Both men, though, brought in considerably less money than Navy veteran Tom Royals, who would give his party a comparatively fresh face.
• Baltimore Mayor (D) (87-11 Biden): First-term Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott faces a competitive primary battle against one of the most prominent and controversial figures in local politics, former Mayor Sheila Dixon.
Dixon resigned as mayor in 2010 after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families, but she's retained a loyal base of support among voters who remember her as a leader who helped bring down the city's murder rate. Dixon came close to winning back her old post in the 2016 primary and again in 2020, when Scott narrowly beat her 30-27.
Scott himself has touted a drop in the homicide rate, but critics still argue he's done a poor job addressing crime. Those naysayers include Baltimore Sun co-owner David Smith, a prominent conservative who has financed a super PAC that's labeled Scott a "nice guy, bad mayor."
The incumbent has enjoyed a sizable fundraising advantage over Dixon, though his lead in two April polls that showed him ahead by single-digit margins was less decisive. There haven't been any more recent surveys, though, in a contest that's been overshadowed by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
Eleven others are on the ballot, including former federal prosecutor Thiru Vignarajah, who dropped out and endorsed Dixon in early May. Scott and Dixon, however, are the only serious contenders. Winning the Democratic primary has long been tantamount to election in this loyally blue city, and that remains the case in 2024.
Nebraska
Polls close at 9 PM ET. While Nebraska is split between the Central and Mountain time zones, polls close in the entire state at the same time.
• NE-02 (R) (52-46 Biden): Both parties are preparing for a competitive rematch between Republican Rep. Don Bacon and Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas two years after Bacon's 51-49 victory, but the congressman first must dispatch a far-right candidate from yesteryear.
Businessman Dan Frei campaigned against then-Rep. Lee Terry in 2014 for the previous version of this Omaha-based seat and held that incumbent to a shockingly close 53-47 victory. Many Republicans still blame Frei for Terry's defeat that fall, so his decision to take on Bacon left his detractors with some uncomfortable déjà vu.
Bacon, though, has tried to dispel worries of a repeat by releasing a pair of surveys showing him easily defeating Frei, who has acknowledged he doesn't have the money to pay for his own polls. Trump, despite his past feuds with Bacon, has not backed Frei.
Alaska
Polls close at 12:00 AM ET Wednesday / 8 PM Tuesday local time.
• Anchorage, AK Mayor (49-48 Biden): Far-right Mayor Dave Bronson faces a difficult reelection battle against former Anchorage Assembly Chair Suzanne LaFrance, an independent who has the support of the local Democratic Party. The winner of this officially nonpartisan election will serve a three-year term, as Anchorage is the rare major American city where terms last an odd number of years.
LaFrance, whose previous role made her the leader of the local equivalent of a city council, led Bronson 36-35 in the first round of voting on April 2. Former Anchorage Economic Development Corp. CEO Bill Popp, an independent who took third with 17%, went on to endorse LaFrance for the second round. However, former Democratic state Rep. Chris Tuck, who took 8%, has remained neutral.
LaFrance, who has outraised Bronson, has argued he's been an "incompetent" and divisive leader who's done a poor job addressing issues like homelessness and snow removal. The mayor has hit back by arguing that, with progressives already in charge of the city's governing body, "our ultra-woke Assembly will have a rubber stamp at City Hall" if he's not reelected.