It’s election day in Maryland, and Democrats will select their nominee in one of the most important and hotly contested Governor primaries in the nation. Political newcomer Wes Moore started out as a huge underdog, but he’s become the narrow favorite in the RacetotheWH Primary predictions, which projects he will win with 26.8%. However, it’s far from a guaranteed victory.
For one, no new polling has been conducted since June. The last few polls we received showed that former Obama Labor Secretary and DNC chair Tom Perez was surging into the top tier of candidates, and it’s entirely possible that he has continued to rise in the closing weeks of the campaign. We also can’t count out Peter Franchot, the State Auditor that has led polling for most of the race and has the higher name recognition and establishment support.
Our Interactive Primary Forecast at RacetotheWH has so far called every primary we’ve projected correctly (a perfect 23-0), and this is probably going to be the most challenging one to call yet. There’s also a highly competitive Republican primary in Maryland today between Trump-backed Dan Cox, who attended the January 6th rally, and Kelly Schulz. Schulz is a more moderate candidate that served in Larry Hogan’s administration, and we have her as as the slight favorite today as well.
The winner of the nomination for both parties will seek to replace Governor Hogan (R). It’s one of Democrats top two opportunities to flip a governorship this year, along with Massachusetts.
Here’s the full Maryland Governor Primary Forecast. We are also predicting the results for the Senate as well, which has Democrats with a small edge nationally.