The print edition of this morning's Baltimore Sun headlines the findings of its poll of 500 likely Democratic voters for the June 26th Democratic Maryland primary. The poll was conducted by telephone between May 29th and June 6th. This poll follows three televised debates between the seven candidates. Its findings revealed a tie between Prince Georges County Executive Rushern Baker and former NAACP president Ben Jealous at 16% each, with all the other five significant candidates trailing far behind, ranging from 5% to 1%. The findings:
Rushern Baker: 16%
Ben Jealous: 16%
Valerie Ervin: 5%
Richard Madaleno: 4%
Jim Shea: 4%
Krish Vignarajah: 4%
Alex Ross: 1%
The article quotes two experts, both professors at the University of Baltimore, stating that, with these numbers, it is extremely unlikely that one of the five trailing candidates will be able to catch up and seriously threaten the two front runners.
Former Montgomery County councilwoman Valerie Ervin took Kevin Kamenetz’s place when the Baltimore County Executive died suddenly on May 10th; however, Ervin’s name will not be on the ballot as the death came too late to redo the ballots. The late Kevin Kamenetz’s name remains on the ballot, and polling places will display signs that a vote for Kevin Kamenetz will be a vote for Valerie Ervin.
State Senator Richard Madaleno of Montgomery County has attempted to stake out the most liberal positions during the three televised debates. He is the only openly gay candidate. However, according to the Sun, his appeal to date is isolated to a small liberal base in Montgomery County; his voters there hate Donald Trump the most and also dislike Republican Governor Larry Hogan. Similarly, Baltimore attorney and former chairman of the University of Maryland Board of Regents Jim Shea’s support is limited to the Baltimore area. The poll also found the supporters of Krish Vignarajah, former policy director for Michelle Obama, to be limited to “highly educated” voters with “advanced degrees”.
The poll also found, unsurprisingly, that Jealous’s support is centered in the Baltimore area, while Baker’s support is centered in the DC area, so the primary election may come down to a battle between Baltimore and Washington. Both front runners are African American.
Unfortunately, the poll follows other polls which find Governor Larry Hogan very popular and at least at this point likely to win reelection. Only 34% of polled Democratic voters agree that “almost any Democrat will do a better job for Maryland than Larry Hogan”.