Republicans now wield more political power than at any point since the 1920s, and retaking Congress in 2018 will likely be tough for Democrats because of some very challenging maps. Democrats hold 25 of the 34 Senate seats up for election next year because they did so well when these states last held elections in 2012, and gaining the three seats they need for a majority would be a herculean task. Meanwhile, Democrats face a heavily gerrymandered House where Donald Trump carried 53 percent of all districts—despite losing the popular vote nationwide—and Republicans hold 55 percent of the seats.
However, as shown on the map above, 36 states will also elect their governors in 2018, while two others will do so this November, covering 85 percent of the country’s population. And for Democrats, the the playing field is almost the exact opposite of the Senate’s, because it’s Republicans who have to defend a vast majority of governors offices, since almost all of these states last held elections in the GOP wave year of 2014.
Indeed, Republicans hold the governor’s mansion in 27 of these 38 states, amounting to 53 percent of the nation’s population. And 15 of these GOP governors face term limits or have announced they won’t seek re-election, depriving Republicans of the usual benefits of incumbency. By contrast, Democrats control just 10 states covering 31 percent of the population, and only four of those are open seats. (Alaska also has an independent governor who won in 2014 with Democratic support, but he has yet to announce his 2018 plans.)
Midterm elections almost always see the president’s party lose seats downballot, especially when an administration is deeply unpopular. If the public’s dislike of Trump persists or worsens, Republicans could consequently see catastrophic gubernatorial losses in 2017 and 2018. And that in turn could have a huge impact on one of the most pressing issues for Democrats everywhere: redistricting.
Below, we’ll take a look at the entire gubernatorial landscape, including a rundown of the key states where Democrats have their best pickup opportunities. If you’re looking for races to get involved in this year and next, this guide is a great place to start.